I am highly anticipating the upcoming Heavyweight battle between current Champion Brock Lesner and interim Champion Shane Carwin, so much so that I thought I would blog about it.
There have been few fights in the UFC that have me this jazzed up, mostly because I want Brock to lose in a highly desperate way. There are many who feel the same way, especially after many of the questionable antics that Brock has displayed in his last few victories, especially after defeating Heath Herring and Frank Mir. Personally I think that Brock is a disgrace to the sport and while he may have talent, his size and wrestling background has really been his main advantage over opponents at this point that have not put him to the full challenge.
Let's recap:
Brock has lost once thus far in the Octogon, it was to Frank Mir when the two met for the first time, the fight was fairly short and sweet and basically went something like this...
Brock dominated the first few moments and was able to get Mir into a few bad positions on the ground, mostly punching him with short, quick rabbit punches that were effective, but before they could do fight-stopping damage Mir was able to use his expertise off his back and put Lesner into a heal-hook from hell that has the bruiser tapping in a matter of seconds. End of fight.
Lesner being the sore loser that he is pouted, but since then has been improving and gained victories over Heath Herring, Randy Couture, and was able to avenge his loss to Mir the second time they met. However, Lesner and Carwin were suppose to meet in late 2009 but a illness kept Brock from fighting until now, which July 3rd will certainly be a 4th of July firework celebration a day early for sure.
This is really the first time that two fighters of this caliber have met in the octogon at the Heavyweight division. If we look at where the sport has come in the past five years, we also see a growing trend of fighters who can weight over 235lbs and still have agility, grappling, boxing, and Jiu-Jitsu abilities despite their large frame and weight. Brock is often praised for his ability to move quickly, have great power, and punish his opponents when he gets into the ground and pound. However, I think that many commentators and fans are forgetting about several key things that I would like to point out that I think will make all the difference in the Carwin/Lesner bout.
I went back and watched both men in their last few fights, mostly observing Lesner in his defeat over Hall of Famer Randy Couture, which was a great fight for Randy who fought hard against a man who easily weighed about 50lbs more than him. Randy was able to avoid a great deal of damage early on, he was also able to keep Lesner up against the fence for some dirty boxing, and for the most part Randy executed a great strategy to win by decision, but before that became a factor Lesner was able to get Randy to the ground in a bad position and land several short blows, especially a hard one to the back of Randy's head (which should have been called by the ref and a point deduction OR at least a warning), but instead Randy was injured and Brock went on to win the fight due to the referee stoppage (AKA TKO).
Carwin has many of the same skill sets that Randy does, but he is a few years younger and far more explosive than Randy, he also has far more power in his punches, his heavier, and I think possibly better on the ground, which is why I think Carwin (if he can control Lesner up against the cage) will have a huge advantage and should easily be able to pull out a victory. Up to this point we really haven't seen how much damage Lesner can take, we know he can take a punch fairly well as Mir was able to land quite a few and also a knee or two, but Carwin is super-heavy-handed and deadly accurate with his punches that come in severe form. If you take a look at Carwins victory over Mir he was able to push Mir up against the cage and basically land some nasty right hands from a short distance that hurt Mir, but his uppercuts that came from under Mir's arm protection a few moments later are what put Mir on the mat and Carwin finished the fight from there. It was quite impressive to say the least. Carwin also stopped Gabriel Gonzaga with a nasty punch that has him on Queer Street in a blink of the eye, but even more impressive was Carwin's ability to neutralize a submission hold from a great Jiu-Jitsu artist like Gonzaga.
At this point though we have not seen either opponents chin really put to the test, Carwin has been able to plow through his last few fights without going into late rounds and so his cardio could be questionable, but then again so is Brock's, who began gassing out in the later rounds against Heath Herring, who was able to at least go the distance. Lesner is still the bigger man overall and therefore is likely to wear down faster, but quite frankly I don't see this fight going to the second round. Carwin has various places that I feel he can defeat Lesner, mostly leg locks or ankle locks if the fight goes to the ground and he could just as well land a few bombs that could stun Lesner enough to end it that way as well. Lesner's only hope is being able to do what he did to Mir and that is to get him on his back and ground and pound while controlling one of the arms enough that Carwin is unable to defend himself.
Either way, it's gonna be an explosive evening and probably one to remember.
No comments:
Post a Comment